The complete Alfinas Macro Confluence Insight Series is now available for download. This edition includes: → Why April 2026 Changed Everything → Part I — The Oil Price Shock Playbook → Part II — Stagflation or Slowflation? → Part III — Beyond Borders → Part IV — Asset Allocation Reboot → The Alfinas Model Portfolio Scenario Analysis Q2-Q4 2026 16 pages. Updated monthly. 📄 Download the complete Macro Confluence Insight Series — 16 pages including the Alfinas Model Portf

A Practical Repositioning Framework for Professional Investors Part IV of the Macro Confluence Insight Series — Asset Allocation Reboot - April 2026 April 2026 has delivered exactly the macro environment that was always a tail risk but never fully priced: an oil supply shock of historic proportions, tariff-driven inflation that refuses to retreat, a Federal Reserve caught between growth and price stability, and geopolitical insecurity that is rewriting the rules of global

Scenario Analysis Q2-Q4 2026 — How Our Recommended Allocation Performs Across Three Macro Scenarios The Macro Confluence Insight Series :Part IV — Asset Allocation Reboot- Model Portfolio May 2026 Scenario Analysis Recommendations are only meaningful if they are tested against a range of outcomes — not just the base case. As a companion analysis to our Macro Confluence Part IV — Asset Allocation Reboot, Alfinas has developed a theoretical model portfolio for Q2-Q4 2026, stre

Asset Allocation in a Geopolitically Fragmented World Part III of the Macro Confluence Insight Series . Beyond Borders — April 2026 Something fundamental has changed in the architecture of the global economy — and most investment frameworks have not yet caught up. For three decades following the end of the Cold War, the dominant assumption in global asset allocation was convergence: trade would expand, capital would flow freely, geopolitical tensions would be mediated through

The 2026 Inflation Dilemma and What It Means for Your Portfolio Part II of the Macro Confluence Insight Series : Stagflation or Slowflation? - April 2026 The word nobody wanted to hear is back. Stagflation — the toxic combination of stagnant growth and persistent inflation — is once again being discussed in central banks, investment committees and macro strategy meetings. Whether 2026 ultimately delivers a full stagflationary episode or something more benign — a slowflation

What the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Means for Institutional Portfolio Part I of the Macro Confluence Insight Series . The Oil Shock — April 2026 The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints — a narrow passage through which approximately 20% of global oil and LNG flows every day. In early 2026, that passage became a flashpoint. The consequences are now reverberating through commodity markets, central bank deliberations, and institutional portfolio

Insights from The Market Group DACH Investors Retreat 2026 | Bad Wörishofen, Bavaria When the asset class that has outperformed public markets is itself put to the test, what does its growing portfolio utility actually look like — and what are the opaque risks investors must understand before they allocate? The Market Group DACH Investors Retreat, hosted at the Steigenberger Hotel Der Sonnenhof in Bad Wörishofen, Bavaria, from May 4th to May 6th, 2026, brought together insti

Insights from Alpha Edge Europe — Private Markets, London The debate around Evergreen funds and GP-led secondaries is reaching a critical inflection point. As gates activate, valuations come under scrutiny, and Moody's downgrades an entire sector, the structural questions can no longer be deferred. Recently, Marie-Laure Mikkelsen, Founding Partner of Alfinas Alternative Investment Advisers, joined the panel "Should I Stay or Should I Go?" at Institutional Investor's Alpha Edg

Introducing the Alfinas Macro Confluence Series — Oil Shock, Sticky Inflation, Geopolitical Insecurity and Portfolio Resilience Part I of the Macro Confluence Insight Series — April 2026 There are moments in markets when several structural forces converge simultaneously — and the environment shifts not incrementally, but categorically. April 2026 is one of those moments. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has sent Brent crude to $103-115 per barrel. The Trump administration's tar

From Moody's Downgrade to Sector-Wide Exodus: The Private Credit Reckoning Deepens 🚨 Since our March 2026 analysis: Moody's has downgraded the entire $400bn BDC sector to NEGATIVE. Blue Owl faces 41% redemption requests. The sector has recorded its first-ever net outflow. And new XA Investments data confirms the pivot began silently in Q4 2025. In March 2026, we published Part I of The Quiet Storm — a structural analysis of the liquidity squeeze building beneath the surface

What the FS KKR Downgrade Means for Investors and Fund Managers Part I of the Private Debt Insight Series : T he Quiet Storm II — Following the Moody's Junk Downgrade of FS KKR Capital Corp 🚨 BREAKING: Moody's has downgraded FS KKR Capital Corp to junk status following non-accruals reaching 5.5% on cost basis — nearly 50% above the long-term industry average of 3.8%. The Quiet Storm just got louder. When I published Part I of this analysis — "Understanding the Liquidity Sque

Part I of the Private Debt Insight Series — March 2026 For much of the last decade, private debt was the darling of institutional investors. Attractive yields, low correlation to public markets, and consistent deal flow made it a cornerstone of alternative portfolios worldwide. But beneath the surface of this booming asset class, a structural vulnerability has been building — one that is now beginning to reveal itself in the form of a liquidity squeeze, What Is a Liquidity S

INVESTMENT RESEARCH - INSIGHT SERIES Private Debt — March 2026 There is a quiet panic spreading through the carpeted corridors of private banks and family offices — those who distributed Evergreen funds from Blackstone, BlackRock and Blue Owl to their wealthy clients. Blackstone. BlackRock. Blue Owl. The giants of Private Credit are facing record redemption requests — and some are already closing the gate. We were sold the democratisation of the most attractive asset

The private markets landscape is undergoing a fundamental shift. As traditional exit routes remain congested and interest rate environments stabilize at higher levels, asset allocators are being forced to rethink their approach to illiquidity. Insight from the Citywire Private Markets DACH Retreat Munich 2025 Recently, Citywire Switzerland sat down with Dr. Marie-Laure Mikkelsen, founding partner of Alfinas Alternative Investment Partners, during the Citywire DAC

What is the landscape for real assets (real estate and infrastructure) in 2025? Amid high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and the energy transition, investors are navigating troubled waters, but lucrative opportunities are surfacing for adaptive players. "State of the Industry: Real Assets in 2025and Beyond" Panel Discussion Insight from The 9th Annual Switzerland Institutional Forum | MarketsGroup A profound shift is underway in institutional portfolios. Recent re

Climate Investing Series/ Part II: Carbon & Your Portfolio / Blog 2: Strategies, Risks, and Rewards As the global economy transitions to a low-carbon future, carbon markets have emerged as a critical tool for financing decarbonization efforts. For investors, carbon assets represent not only an opportunity to align portfolios with sustainability goals but also a chance to diversify and manage risk. The carbon market is not just for large industries. Small and large investor

State of the Industry Series: Fund Selector Talk III-2025, Sell-Side vs Buy-Side Due Diligence In the competitive world of alternative investments, due diligence is the cornerstone of trust and transparency. For fund managers seeking to raise capital, understanding the distinct roles of sell-side and buy-side due diligence is paramount. However, misconceptions often arise, leading to confusion and potential roadblocks. Let's break down these critical processes and clarify

Climate Investing Series Part III: Carbon & Your Portfolio - Strategies & Considerations. This blog series explores the methods and rationale for integrating carbon assets into asset allocation strategies. From direct investments in carbon credits to indirect exposure through green companies and funds, we’ll examine how carbon assets can help reduce risk, align with decarbonization goals, and capture growth opportunities in the low-carbon economy. Understanding this emergi

State of the Industry Series: Fund Selector Talk II-2025, Insight in What Selectors Want Fund selectors and gatekeepers play a pivotal role in the investment ecosystem. They are the decision-makers who determine which funds make it onto buy lists and ultimately reach investors. In this article, we discuss how fund managers can increase their chances of success by presenting a clear, compelling, and investor-ready proposition. In today’s competitive investment landscape, wit

State of the Industry Series: Fund Selector Talk I-2025 - Alternative Assets Review in 2024 The private markets have shown gradual improvement amid a challenging economic backdrop. While managers have faced persistent headwinds, the year has also highlighted the resilience and adaptability of these asset classes. Private markest continue to offer portfolio diversification opportunities for each risk profile . I. Private Equity in 2024: A Year of Patience and Innovation Priv