The Macro Confluence: The Alfinas Model Portfolio
- Marie-Laure Mikkelsen
- May 10
- 2 min read
Updated: 5 days ago
Scenario Analysis Q2-Q4 2026: How Our Recommended Allocation Performs Across Three Macro Scenarios
The Macro Confluence Insight Series: Part IV, Asset Allocation Reboot- Model Portfolio May 2026
Scenario Analysis Recommendations are only meaningful when tested against a range of outcomes, not just the base case. As a companion analysis to our Macro Confluence Part IV , Asset Allocation Reboot, Alfinas has developed a theoretical model portfolio for Q2-Q4 2026, stress-tested against three distinct macro scenarios: Slowflation (55% probability), Stagflation (30%) and Rapid Resolution (15%). The analysis covers our recommended allocation, the expected return and risk profile under each scenario, and critically, what we have deliberately excluded from the portfolio and why.
📅 May 2026 Edition — Updated Monthly All return and risk estimates are illustrative and based on historical analogues. They do not constitute investment advice. |
Portfolio Assumptions & Conditions
This model portfolio is designed for:
Investor Profile:
→ Institutional investors, family offices
and sophisticated professional investors
→ Investment horizon: 3-5 years
→ Genuine illiquidity tolerance for the
alternative sleeve (20-30%)
→ Moderate-to-high risk tolerance
Currency:
→ Base currency: USD
→ European investors: EUR-hedged version
available on request
→ CHF investors: currency overlay
recommended
Risk Objective:
→ Target volatility: 8-12% per annum
→ Maximum drawdown tolerance: -15 to -20%
→ Sharpe ratio target: >0.7 across
base case scenario
Return Objective:
→ Target return: 7-9% per annum
(Scenario A base case)
→ Real return target: CPI + 4-5%
→ Income component: 3-4% per annum
Rebalancing:
→ Strategic review: monthly
→ Tactical adjustments: as macro
scenario probabilities shift
→ Next update: June 2026
For a EUR or CHF-hedged version, or for a bespoke analysis tailored to your portfolio, contact us at info@alfinas.com
📖 Read Part IV : Asset Allocation Reboot: 👉 [lien Wix Part IV]
📄 Download the full Macro Confluence Insight Series: 👉 www.alfinas.com/insights
Disclaimer ; This article is published by Alfinas Alternative Investment Advisers for informational and educational purposes only. The Alfinas Model Portfolio presented in this article is a theoretical allocation framework developed for illustrative purposes. It does not represent an actual managed portfolio or investment product. All return and risk estimates are illustrative and based on historical analogues in comparable macro environments. Past performance and historical analogues are not indicative of future results. Actual results may differ materially. This article does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, an offer, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument or to adopt any investment strategy. Readers should seek independent professional advice before making any investment decisions.
© Alfinas Alternative Investment Advisers, May 2026.
Marie-Laure Mikkelsen PhD., C.A.I.A Founding Partner Alfinas Alternative Investment Advisers info@alfinas.com | www.alfinas.com
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